With the victory recorded by the Peoples Democratic Party in the governorship election held in Osun State on Saturday, the opposition party raised its state tally to 14, with the ruling All Progressives Congress’ states dropping to 21. The All Progressives Grand Alliance has one – Anambra State – out of the 36 states of the federation. And in the South-West geopolitical zone – the base of the presidential candidate of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu – the PDP will be governing two of the six states by the time the 2023 general elections are held.
The Independent National Electoral Commission on Sunday declared the governorship candidate of the PDP, Senator Ademola Adeleke, known for his love for dancing, the winner of the election. The Returning Officer for the election and Vice-Chancellor of the University of Lagos, Prof Oluwatoyin Ogundipe, announced that Adeleke got a total of 403,371 votes, beating the incumbent Governor Adegboyega Oyetola of the APC, who garnered 375,027 votes in the keenly contested race. In the election held across 3,763 units in the 30 local government areas in Osun, the PDP won 17 of the LGAs, while the APC recorded more votes in the remaining 13. The PDP won in Ede North, Ede South, Ifelodun, Boluwaduro, Egbedore, Odo Otin, Osogbo, Ila, Atakumosa West, Olorunda, Ilesa West, Obokun, Oriade, Orolu, Ife North, Irepodun, and Ejigbo LGAs. The APC, on the other hand, won in Boripe, Ilesa East, Ayedire, Ifedayo, Ife Central, Ayedaade, Iwo, Olaoluwa, Isokan, Atakumosa East, Irewole, Ife South, and Ife East LGAs. Out of the 1,955,657 registered voters in the state, 1,479,595 permanent voter cards were collected before the election.
To create a peaceful atmosphere for the electoral exercise, the Inspector-General of Police, Usman Baba, deployed about 21,000 men of the Nigeria Police Force, apart from personnel from other security, safety and anti-corruption outfits, including the Armed Forces, the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps, the Department of State Services, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, and the Federal Road Safety Corps, among others.
Opinions and analyses have followed the conduct of the election, the majority of which seem to have commended INEC, especially for its deployment of Bimodal Voter Accreditation System and electronic transmission of result. However, it is also widely believed that the election was characterised by massive vote-buying, which drew the condemnation of some candidates and civil society organisations.
It was the second attempt at governorship by Adeleke. According to Merriam-Webster dictionary, the idiom, ‘Once bitten twice shy,’ means that “a person who has failed or been hurt when trying to do something is careful or fearful about doing it again.” In 2018, Adeleke won the main election by 353 votes after polling 254,698 against Oyetola’s 254,345. INEC had, however, declared the election inconclusive and ordered a rerun where both candidates relied on 2,637 votes in the seven units to win the final contest.
Oyetola of the APC was declared the winner of the election held at the seven polling units across four LGAs, after scoring a total number of 255,505 votes, while Adeleke of the PDP polled 255,023 votes. This was, however, met with protests by Adeleke, the PDP, and the Coalition of United Political Parties, among others.
The victory recorded by APC’s Oyetola was made possible by the candidate of the Social Democratic Party, Iyiola Omisore, who came a distant third. The former Deputy Governor of Osun State, who is now National Secretary of the APC, had become an important element in the rerun as some of the polling units fell under the area of his strength.
Omisore, being the determinant factor, was visited by a high-powered Federal Government delegation, which included the then National Chairman of the APC, Adams Oshiomhole; Governor of Ogun State, Senator Ibikunle Amosun; Governor Abiola Ajimobi of Oyo State (now late); the then Ekiti State Governor-elect, Kayode Fayemi; and the Minister of Information and Culture, Lai Mohammed. Some leaders of the PDP, which included the then President of the Senate, Bukola Saraki and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, also lobbied Omisore but he caved in under the pressure as he announced that he would support the APC in the rerun.
Before the election on Saturday, both the APC and the PDP in Osun faced internal crises, especially on the choice of their candidates for the poll. In the APC, the bickering between Oyetola and his predecessor, Rauf Aregbesola, had polarised the state chapter of the party. The faction led by Aregbesola, who is the Minister of Interior, is known as ‘The Osun Progressives’ while the Oyetola-led faction is known as the ‘Ileri Oluwa’ group. The Aregbesola-led faction had constituted parallel party executive committees from ward to state level. In the PDP, the internal wrangling was so bad that the chieftains of the party had to run for governorship in other parties against Adeleke.
Osun people
The lawmaker representing Obokun/Oriade Federal Constituency in Osun State, Oluwole Oke, a member of the PDP, was asked if the outcome of the election was about the parties or the candidates. While noting that it was about the parties, he disagreed with those who believe that Adeleke is not the best candidate but the crisis in the APC allowed him to win the election. “Osun people simply want to try another party. There wasn’t any difference between Governor Oyetola and Ogbeni Aregbesola. They may have their internal issues just like we have ours in PDP, but the truth is that change was necessary and there was nothing we can do about it.”
The result must have shocked the APC, Oyetola and other chieftains of the party, who thought the election would be an easy ride for them. The party’s National Chairman, Senator Abdullahi Adamu, in an interview on Arise TV, declined to comment on the result.
On his part, Oyetola said the party was studying the result. While addressing the APC supporters at Ila-Orogun on July 1, the governor, who unlike his predecessor had ensured regular payment of salaries, said, “This power is in my hand, I won’t drop it because your vote will retain it in my hand. My eight years in power as governor is sure with God on my side. “It will take the PDP 30 years for them to contest again in Osun because of the defeat they will suffer in July 16th. They should use the period to prepare for governance, it is not child’s play.”
According to political scientists, the electorate vote based on individual candidates and not political parties. They also believe that the outcome of the governorship poll is a pointer to what Nigerians should expect in the 2023 general elections.
A professor in the Department of Political Science of the University of Abuja, Saleh Dauda, said, “I can say that it (outcome of the poll) sends a signal in the sense that the ruling party (APC) should not bank on the fact that they have the incumbency factor. The incumbency factor can be defeated and that is the lesson from the Osun election.”
Dauda, however, said the APC’s loss of Osun to the PDP might not threaten Tinubu’s presidential bid. “It is not a threat per se but the message is that he has to work hard. He should not think that he has the Yoruba votes. He has to walk the extra mile to win the confidence of the people. That is a clear message to him that he can’t bank on their votes. Now he knows that he has a problem at hand, so he has to work very hard to assuage the rebel voters and the voters across the length and breadth of this country,” he said.
The lecturer also stated that the electorate in Osun voted for Adeleke and not the PDP. He said, “I think it was for the candidate. You know he (Adeleke) was on the ballot almost four years ago and he almost won. So, I think it is both for the candidate and the party.”
Another lecturer in the Department of Political Science of the University of Nigeria Nsukka, Prof Emmanuel Onyebuchi, said, “What you should know about subsequent elections, even the Osun election, is that it is going to be based on the personality of the individuals, not the issue of party. What happened in Osun State is that the people’s will eventually prevailed. Remember that Adeleke ‘won’ the 2018 election but the powers that be snatched it away from him. Because he is a grassroots politician and the people are with him and did not desert him, the will of the people has prevailed.”